(BTC) Price Forecast Analysis for the Week Commencing September 29, 2025

I. Executive Summary and Actionable Weekly Outlook

Bitcoin enters the week commencing September 29, 2025, from a position of acute technical vulnerability following a severe short-term correction. This downturn saw over $1.5 billion in leveraged-long positions liquidated, effectively clearing excessive bullish fragility.¹ While this deleveraging confirms immediate bearish momentum, it has simultaneously driven the asset price directly onto a highly confluent and structurally vital support cluster.

The forecast anticipates an environment of high volatility, driven primarily by this week’s concentrated US macroeconomic calendar, specifically the employment report.³ Given the market’s oversold condition—evidenced by the Fear and Greed Index reading 33 (Fear) ⁴—and sustained institutional buying at lower prices, the primary thesis favors a period of consolidation followed by a targeted tactical reaction bounce.

1.1. Thesis Statement: The Forecast for the Week Ahead

Bitcoin is strategically positioned just above the critical support range spanning $106,000 to $107,000.⁵ Although the medium-term technical outlook is compromised by the confirmation of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern breakdown ⁵, short-term momentum indicators suggest that an immediate counter-trend rally is highly probable, contingent only upon the successful defense of the foundational support floor.

The directional forecast suggests early-week consolidation giving way to a high-volatility response to upcoming macro data. The higher probability outcome leans toward a bullish tactical rebound, primarily fueled by short-covering from depressed Relative Strength Index (RSI) levels and stabilization following the liquidation cascade. The most probable weekly high is anticipated to challenge the $115,000 resistance level, with a potential extension up to the $117,000 upper boundary of the descending channel that has characterized recent price action.¹

1.2. Critical Levels to Monitor and Weekly Range Projection

The market’s directional fate for the week will be determined by activity at two primary inflection points:

• Critical Floor/Primary Support: $106,000. This level is critical, representing the convergence of the long-term 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ($106,164) and multiple tight technical support clusters.⁵ A decisive weekly close beneath $106,000 would confirm bearish continuation and validate the medium-term Head and Shoulders target, which suggests an eventual drop toward $93,071.⁵
• Primary Resistance: $117,000. This threshold marks the upper boundary of the orderly descending channel that has contained Bitcoin’s movement since its recent record high.¹ A sustained, high-volume breach above $117,000 would negate the current bearish short-term structure, signaling a potential return to the higher analyst targets of $122,000–$123,000.¹

The Weekly Projected Trading Range for the base case is defined as $106,000 to $117,000.

1.3. Technical Conflict Resolution

The current Bitcoin chart presents a technical dichotomy. On one hand, classical pattern analysis, specifically the H&S breakdown, suggests a significant medium-term decline.⁵ On the other hand, short-term oscillators, such as the RSI hovering near 38, point to oversold conditions that typically precede a sharp reaction bounce.⁵ This strong technical tension implies that the market lacks internal conviction regarding its next major move. Instead of generating a direction internally, the market is poised to be highly dependent on external, exogenous factors for clarity. The heavily scheduled macro calendar, featuring high-impact data such as Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the ADP employment report, and ISM PMIs ³, provides the requisite external shock to force a resolution to this technical conflict, guaranteeing elevated volatility mid-to-late week.

II. Current Market Positioning and Flow Analysis

2.1. Recent Price Action and Structural Deleverage

Bitcoin’s short-term movement has been definitively downward, evidenced by a 6.02% decrease over the past seven days, settling the current price near $109,153.⁸ This swift decline was initiated by a massive cascade of leveraged-long liquidations that totaled over $1.5 billion, commencing on Sunday.¹ This liquidation event marks the largest single sell-off of the year, wiping out a substantial amount of bullish leveraged bets.²

Market analysts frequently apply the “market reset” hypothesis to events of this magnitude. This interpretation posits that the event was not a rejection of fundamental value but rather a necessary process to purge excessive speculation and fragility from the system.² This deleveraging action is viewed as establishing a “cleaner base for renewed price discovery movements,” setting the stage for more sustainable growth if underlying demand remains robust.² Furthermore, an examination of volume reveals strong engagement during this dip: the past day’s trading volume ($72.841B) is noticeably higher than the 7-day ($70.662B) and 30-day ($66.585B) averages.⁸ While elevated volume in a downtrend often confirms bearish distribution, the institutional accumulation dynamics (discussed below) suggest that this volume represents absorption rather than outright panic selling.

2.2. Liquidity Dynamics and Institutional Footprint

A crucial structural factor stabilizing the market is the sustained strength of institutional demand, which appears robust despite the leveraged price collapse.

Recent flow data for spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) reported significant net inflows totaling $642 million.⁹ This consistent capital injection, led by major funds such as Fidelity’s FBTC, demonstrates that large institutional investors are actively accumulating the asset, viewing the liquidation-induced downturn as a favorable purchasing opportunity.⁹ These institutions are positioned to buy the dip caused by the forced selling of over-leveraged retail and hedge fund traders.

2.3. Institutional Resilience vs. Leverage Flush

The substantial ETF inflows ($642 million) occurring immediately following a $1.5 billion leveraged liquidation event ¹ represents a crucial causal relationship in current market structure. The fact that the price drop, which was severe enough to trigger massive liquidations, was met instantly with hundreds of millions in non-leveraged institutional capital underscores the strong structural demand floor inherent in Bitcoin. This systematic institutional buying provides a robust cushion that absorbs technical selling pressure, significantly diminishing the probability of a full-scale capitulation below the critical $106,000 level and confirming institutional confidence in the medium-to-long-term trajectory.

III. In-Depth Technical Analysis and Pattern Deconstruction

Bitcoin’s technical posture reflects severe short-term damage but also an approach toward historically reliable reactive support levels, requiring a granular assessment of momentum indicators and classical chart patterns.

3.1. Momentum Indicators (RSI and Moving Averages)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms weakening price momentum, having swung into definitive bearish territory ¹, with recent readings near 38.12.⁶ Some technical models registered the RSI dipping below 30 following the falling prices of the past weeks.⁵ A reading below 30 is widely recognized as signaling an asset is oversold, indicating that a significant technical reaction upward has a high statistical probability of occurring, thereby supporting the forecast for a tactical rebound.⁵

Regarding key moving averages, the price has broken below and is now trading beneath the 50-day moving average, which is established as a confirmed point of resistance.¹ The next and arguably most critical line of defense is the long-term support provided by the 200-day EMA, currently positioned at $106,164. This level must be defended successfully to preserve the broader macro bullish structure of the asset.⁶

3.2. Bearish Chart Pattern Confirmation: The Head and Shoulders (H&S)

A significant negative technical signal was generated when Bitcoin broke down through the neckline support of a confirmed Head and Shoulders formation, specifically breaching the $109,859 level.⁵ This classical pattern breakdown is highly definitive and, according to traditional charting principles, signals a sustained further fall. The measured move target for this H&S pattern breakdown is placed significantly lower, at

$93,071 or potentially below that figure.⁵

3.3. H&S Signal vs. Short-Term Structure

The H&S breakdown is a medium-term bearish projection indicating where the price could ultimately travel if the current structural floor is lost. However, the price has stabilized immediately upon contacting the major technical support cluster defined by the $107,000–$106,000 zone. This immediate defensive reaction, occurring right above the 200-day EMA ⁶, strongly suggests that sophisticated market participants are currently treating the $93,071 target as the

maximum downside risk rather than the immediate weekly expectation. This indicates a highly localized and defensive accumulation phase is active, where large investors are absorbing selling pressure, preventing a collapse while the market awaits a clear directional trigger to determine the outcome of the intermediate trend.

3.4. Key Technical Support and Resistance Cluster Mapping

A comprehensive analysis of confluent technical levels across multiple models confirms the extreme importance of the $106,000–$107,700 zone for the upcoming week. The successful defense or failure of this range will dictate short-term volatility.

Bitcoin Confluent Technical Levels (Week of September 29, 2025)

Source/Indicator	Critical Resistance (R1)	Primary Resistance (R2)	Immediate Support (S1)	Critical Floor (S2)
Investopedia (Descending Channel) 1	$117,000	$123,000	$107,000	$102,000
InvestTech (H&S/Neutral) 5	$113,500	N/A	$107,700	$106,000
CoinDCX (EMA Analysis) 6	$113,000–$115,000	N/A	$109,000–$110,000	$106,000 (200D EMA)
InvestTech Short-Term Range 5	$117,756	$123,777 (High-RSI)	$107,657	$98,948 (Low-RSI)

The confluence analysis establishes the $106,000–$107,700 zone as structurally vital, supported by the 200-day EMA, InvestTech’s primary support, and Investopedia’s key watch level.¹ Conversely, a decisive weekly close above the $117,000–$117,756 range—which represents the upper channel boundary and the high of the Long-Term Trading Range ¹—would be interpreted as a major bullish reversal signal.

IV. Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Catalysts for the Week (September 29th)

The trading week is set to be dominated by a series of high-impact US economic data releases scheduled for the end of the month and the start of the new quarter. These events will directly influence Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations and dictate volatility across all risk assets, including Bitcoin.

4.1. Focus on US Labor Market Data

The most significant risk driver for the week is the comprehensive US employment report, which provides fresh data on Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings (wage growth).³ Bitcoin and other digital assets react strongly to shifts in liquidity expectations influenced by these reports.

Current forecasts anticipate Nonfarm Payrolls will rise by 39K in September, an increase from 22K reported in August, although this remains below earlier-year levels.³ The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, matching the previous period’s increase.³

• Scenario Modeling: NFP Deviations and BTC Impact: Should the NFP report be surprisingly weak (significantly below 39K), it would reinforce concerns about a faster-than-anticipated economic cooling. This generally increases expectations for a dovish monetary policy stance from the Fed, leading to reduced real yields and typically triggering a significant bullish surge in BTC, potentially driving the price toward the Primary Resistance (R2) cluster of $123,000.¹ Conversely, a surprisingly strong NFP report combined with elevated wage growth would lend credence to the sticky inflation narrative—already supported by August’s higher-than-expected CPI data.¹⁰ This outcome would likely drive US Treasury yields higher, strengthen the US Dollar, and place immediate, aggressive downward pressure on Bitcoin, forcing a definitive test of the $106,000 critical floor.

4.2. Broader Economic Indicators and Geopolitical Risk

In addition to labor market updates, the week includes other crucial leading indicators. These include the ADP employment report, projected to show private payrolls increasing by 30K ³, and the release of the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for manufacturing and services.³ Better-than-expected PMI readings, particularly those indicating robust services growth, would confirm underlying economic resilience and potentially temper aggressive risk-on trading. Finally, the analyst reports note the ongoing risk of a US government shutdown coinciding with the start of the new fiscal year.³ While often transient, a shutdown introduces geopolitical uncertainty and can temporarily pressure risk assets as funds seek perceived safety.

4.3. Macro as the Ultimate Technical Trigger

The technical analysis establishes that the Bitcoin price is currently coiled, exhibiting conflicting signals: momentum indicators mandate an oversold reaction bounce ⁶, yet the H&S breakdown threatens a move to $93,071.⁵ The employment report is not merely a price influence; it is the definitive causal link that will resolve this technical ambiguity. The massive liquidity and volatility surrounding the Nonfarm Payrolls release will provide the external force required to determine whether institutional support successfully defends the $106,000 floor or if the medium-term breakdown signal prevails, driving the price toward deeper support targets.

V. Integrated Scenario Modeling and Final Prediction

The comprehensive analysis, balancing the threat of the H&S pattern against the resilience of institutional buying and oversold conditions, assigns a higher probability to a tactical stabilization and rebound scenario.

5.1. The Base Case: Consolidation and Tactical Bounce (70% Probability)

The highest probability scenario is predicated on the idea that the painful deleveraging event has cleansed the market of weak hands.² Sentiment is currently fearful ⁴, and the price is technically oversold, creating the ideal conditions for a short squeeze or reaction bounce, especially given the continuous flow of capital into spot ETFs.⁹ The price action is anticipated to hold above the confluent support zone of $106,000–$107,000.

The expected trajectory involves stabilization near the current price point of $109,000 early in the week, followed by a test of the $113,500 resistance (R1) prior to the major economic releases. If the NFP data is neutral or mildly soft, the resulting rally is projected to extend to the $115,000 target price.

5.2. Bearish and Bullish Contingency Scenarios

Contingency planning requires modeling the high-impact deviations based on the outcome of the US labor data:

Bitcoin Weekly Scenario Outcomes and Targets (Week of September 29, 2025)

Scenario	Probability	Primary Catalyst	Weekly Target High	Critical Action Point
Base Case (Consolidation/Bounce)	70%	Oversold conditions, ETF support 5	$115,000	Hold $107,000 support 1
Bearish Breakdown	20%	NFP/Wage Growth surprisingly strong 3	$113,500 (Resistance)	Break and close below $106,000 5
Bullish Breakout	10%	NFP/Economic data surprisingly weak 3	$123,000	Sustained break above $117,756 5

VI. Long-Term Context and Risk Management Strategy

6.1. Macro Cycle Timing and Perspective

The current volatility, while painful for short-term traders, must be viewed within the context of Bitcoin’s larger macro cycles. Analyst models that measure the span from bear-market low to cycle peak find a strong historical cadence, with a potential cycle top placed near October 2025.¹¹ This longer-term bullish anticipation provides a vital structural explanation for the persistent institutional demand observed through ETF inflows.⁹ Large investors are operating under the assumption that the market is still in its penultimate phase, meaning they view the current dip as likely the final major structural correction before the final upward push toward anticipated long-term targets, which range from $128,000 to over $200,000 by the end of 2025.⁷

[IMAGE: Infographic showing the 35-month macro cycle projection, highlighting the October 2025 target.]

6.2. Strategic Risk Management Recommendations

Given the convergence of a serious medium-term technical breakdown threat (H&S) and the immediate high-impact macro data, stringent risk management is essential this week.

For any long exposure initiated near or above the $109,000 level, the mandatory structural stop-loss must be placed immediately below the critical $106,000 floor (e.g., $105,900). The loss of this 200-day EMA and confluent support cluster necessitates immediate de-risking, as it validates the medium-term bearish trend continuation toward $93,071.⁵

Furthermore, market participants must model for extreme whipsaw volatility surrounding the Friday NFP release. If unexpected NFP strength drives a momentary, volatile drop toward the $102,000 secondary support, this could present a high-risk/high-reward entry opportunity for counter-trend buyers, provided positions are sized appropriately to withstand initial, aggressive volatility. The highest conviction low-risk entry zone for participants favoring the base case rebound is scaling in between $107,000 and $106,164, utilizing the confluence of technical and historical support alongside oversold RSI readings for favorable positioning.